The magazine Architecture lists 10 things that can improve architecture, construction, and development in the next 10 years . Here is their list with some comments by me
1. Technology: Buckminster Fuller’s concept of “ephemeralization”—that technology gets smaller as it gets more sophisticated—could go extreme, and energy systems could appear to disappear. Green buildings would no longer wear technology on their sleeves.
For example, In Germany, homes are being built that reduce utility costs, when compared to a conventional house, by 90%. This does not include solar panels. Their utility companies pay the consumer a premium for energy consumer produced by wind or sun.
2. Construction: More automated processes, such as robotic construction, could become more common in conjunction with a growing demand for better building craft, leading to smarter, faster, tighter, richer architecture.
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3. Manufacturing: The building materials industry could concentrate less on individual parts and pieces and more on whole assemblies and components. On the other hand, factories could begin to disappear as on-site manufacturing becomes more common.
Panelization of walls, producing electric harnesses that contain all the house wiring, wet modules for plumbing, and framing systems have been used in various parts of the U.S. for at least the last 40 years. A serious problem with factory production of building modules and buildings are the cost of transportation and the cost of adding the extra product requirements needed to make the product withstand the rigors of transportation and erection. Many multi-story building systems can erect a floor a week. This may involve pre-stressed concrete, etc. combined with dry and wet modules. A factory that produces building parts must be working year around to be feasible. Building in most areas of the country is a 3 season business, caused by cold or rain. Because of the seasonal nature of construction work, the pay is substantially higher than factory work. One of the advantages of pre-fab construction is the lower labor cost. Another factor is large capital costs to purchase machines to make a factory production line.
4. Economics: Smarter building products and systems could become both cheaper and more effective, finally killing the misperception that sustainable design has to cost more.
5.Metrics: Subtler tools for evaluating building performance could find clearer links between quantitative factors (energy, water, etc.) and elusive quality-of-life indicators.
6.Practice: Architects could expand their scope of services to guide clients well before predesign and well after occupancy. As a result, the profession could become more financially stable and more essential to business.
Architecture is a part of the real estate development process. A private development is an economic engine that must produces a required return for the investment to be feasible. The architect must understand this when undertaking the design of a private development. How can the architect do this? This must be a part of the architect’s education.
7. Operation: Smart monitoring of buildings and the global sharing of performance statistics could become standard practice, creating unprecedented feedback loops and richer networks of information.
Many years ago, I was shown very detailed maintenance records of U.S. public housing. These were fantastic sources showing the life of almost every building component. by manufacturer and model. This treasure of records could create huge savings for new developments future maintenance costs. These records were never made public. These type records still exist in many places in many countries. There must be a central clearing house for the public to easily consult.
8.Education: Ecological literacy could reform education at every level and transform design schools around more aggressively interdisciplinary curricula.
The key here is interdisciplinary curricula. In the 40 years I have taught in universities, the number one failure of higher education has been lack of interdisciplinary curricula.Why? Each department very jealously fights to maintain their “empire”. Twenty years ago, at the University of New Mexico I was asked to teach about real estate development. I wanted this course to be an interdisciplinary curricula using the Business School, Architecture School, Law School, and the Engineering School. I met with all of the Deans. All agreed it was a wonderful idea and all would participate. The first year was great, every Dean was on board. There after, less and less co-operation. The key was when a Dean was replaced, the successor did not sign on. Finally there was Engineering and Architecture. When the Engineering Dean retired, it was only my original advocate, George Anselvicius, The Dean of Architecture. When George retired , the successive Deans was very helpful.
Development involves accountants, attorneys, architects, engineers, construction managers, appraisers, brokers, maintenance, bankers, economists, planners, public relations, investors, public officials, community groups, users ,geologists, et. al. How many of these are included in a designers education?
9.History: The scholarly history of architecture could focus less on monuments of wealth and power (temples, churches, museums) and more on the interaction of people and place over time.
See #8.
10. Culture: The glamorization of the individual architect could become less and less appealing as design becomes valued more for how it serves communities. Death to starchitecture.
One of the “abilities” of many starchitects is how to get publicity for themselves. Some recent winners of the Pritzker Prize have had little or no body of built work. The importance of scale and being compatible with the community design is essential for an attractive community.
Santa Fe, New Mexico, lost industry when the railroad by passed them. By decreeing that all houses looked similar, Santa Fe recovered by becoming a tourist attraction.
The other extreme is a place like Beverley Hills, California, where much of the housing design does not relate to its neighbors. When I used to jogs through the streets there, the mix of building materials and design styles gave me a huge headache.